Predicting mini-grid performance in Tanzania using Village Data Analytics​

Successful validation of VIDA’s mini-grid site assessment capability with ENGIE Energy Access.​

The goal of the project was to validate VIDA’s site assessment capability by comparing VIDA predictions with the on-ground data of operational mini-grids. The test was performed together with ENGIE PowerCorner on 12 mini-grid sites in Tanzania. Actual site performance was shared only after the VIDA prediction was made, then the two were compared.

During the validation, we found that:

  • VIDA’s prediction of the viability of mini-grid sites closely matched the actual performance (mostly within 1 sigma or σ), with the exception of one site (2.2σ).

  • VIDA was able to correctly predict high revenue in villages, even where survey data incorrectly suggested lower revenue potential.

  • VIDA was able to correctly predict significant differences, even for villages that are located in close geographic proximity.

  • As a result of the successful validation, the VIDA team might now assess 30 additional sites that ENGIE Energy Access considers for future development

Downloads

VIDA report Tanzania
VIDA_REPORT_TANZANIA.pdf (File type: pdf)