Predicting mini-grid performance in Tanzania using Village Data Analytics
Successful validation of VIDA’s mini-grid site assessment capability with ENGIE Energy Access.
The goal of the project was to validate VIDA’s site assessment capability by comparing VIDA predictions with the on-ground data of operational mini-grids. The test was performed together with ENGIE PowerCorner on 12 mini-grid sites in Tanzania. Actual site performance was shared only after the VIDA prediction was made, then the two were compared.
During the validation, we found that:
VIDA’s prediction of the viability of mini-grid sites closely matched the actual performance (mostly within 1 sigma or σ), with the exception of one site (2.2σ).
VIDA was able to correctly predict high revenue in villages, even where survey data incorrectly suggested lower revenue potential.
VIDA was able to correctly predict significant differences, even for villages that are located in close geographic proximity.
As a result of the successful validation, the VIDA team might now assess 30 additional sites that ENGIE Energy Access considers for future development